分類號(hào)：TD745 密 級(jí)：公 開 U D C ：

分類號(hào)：TD745 密 級(jí)：公 開 U D C ： 單位代碼：

工 程 碩 士 學(xué) 位 論 文

魯東物流中心鋼材物流園項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)

條件及投資效益分析

王 春 青

申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別： 領(lǐng)域名稱：

指導(dǎo)教師姓名： 職 稱：

副指導(dǎo)教師姓名：劉 桂 禮 職 稱： 高級(jí)工程師

山 東 科 技 大 學(xué)

二零一一年五月

論文題目：

魯東物流中心鋼材物流園項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)條件

及投資效益分析

作者姓名： 入學(xué)時(shí)間： 領(lǐng)域名稱：物流工程 研究方向：物流工程項(xiàng)目建設(shè)

條件及投資效益分析 指導(dǎo)教師： 職 稱： 副指導(dǎo)教師： 職 稱：

論文提交日期：2011年5月

論文答辯日期：2011年5月27日

授予學(xué)位日期：2011年 月 日

LUDONG STEEL LOGISTICS CENTER LOGISTICS PARK

PROJECT CONSTFUCTION CONDITIONS AND

INVESTMENT RESULTS

A Dissertation submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of

Master of Engineering

from

Shandong University of Science and Technology

By

Wang Chunqing

Supervisor: Professor Hou Guisheng

College of Economics and Management

May 2011

聲 明

本人呈交給山東科技大學(xué)的這篇工程碩士學(xué)位論文，除了所列參考文獻(xiàn)和世所公認(rèn)的文獻(xiàn)外，全部是本人在導(dǎo)師指導(dǎo)下的研究成果。該論文資料尚沒(méi)有呈交于其它任何學(xué)術(shù)機(jī)關(guān)作鑒定。

工程碩士生簽名：

日 期：

AFFIRMATION

I declare that this dissertation, submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the award of Master of Engineering in Shandong University of Science and Technology, is wholly my own work unless referenced of acknowledge. The document has not been submitted for qualification at any other academic institute.

Signature:

Date:

山東科技大學(xué)工程碩士學(xué)位論文 摘要

摘 要

魯東物流中心鋼材物流園作為魯東物流中心規(guī)劃的五大功能區(qū)之一，主要通過(guò)發(fā)展鋼材物流配送，改善和引導(dǎo)濰坊鋼材物流業(yè)的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)健康發(fā)展，同時(shí)積極帶動(dòng)整個(gè)物流中心的商品流、信息流、人才流、資金流，以及產(chǎn)品加工、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)、運(yùn)輸、金融等相關(guān)行業(yè)的發(fā)展，項(xiàng)目建成后，可極大的拉動(dòng)內(nèi)需、促進(jìn)就業(yè)，推動(dòng)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展。

本文通過(guò)對(duì)魯東物流中心鋼材物流園項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行建設(shè)條件和投資效益分析，從區(qū)位發(fā)展和技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)角度分析項(xiàng)目的可行性，預(yù)測(cè)項(xiàng)目投產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承受能力和經(jīng)營(yíng)能力，進(jìn)而提高對(duì)該項(xiàng)目可行性研究的科學(xué)性、完整性和準(zhǔn)確性，期望對(duì)該項(xiàng)目的順利實(shí)施起到借鑒作用。

首先，本文對(duì)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)條件和投資效益評(píng)價(jià)基本理論進(jìn)行了介紹，為本文的研究提供了理論依據(jù)。再?gòu)捻?xiàng)目技術(shù)評(píng)價(jià)、項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)、項(xiàng)目環(huán)境評(píng)價(jià)角度論述項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)效益評(píng)價(jià)應(yīng)采用的評(píng)價(jià)理論及評(píng)價(jià)方法。從項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)角度分析、盈虧平衡分析、敏感性分析等理論，為以后進(jìn)行的項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)效益評(píng)價(jià)研究奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。

其次，結(jié)合魯東物流中心鋼材物流園項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)條件分析，對(duì)該項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了投資估算，主要包括固定資產(chǎn)的估算、流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)的估算、總資產(chǎn)的估算。同時(shí)給出了資金籌措的途徑：銀行貸款和企業(yè)自有資金。

然后，對(duì)魯東物流中心鋼材物流園項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了投資效益分析。主要從產(chǎn)品成本、產(chǎn)品銷售收益、貸款償還期、現(xiàn)金流量、盈虧平衡分析以及敏感性分析等方面入手，結(jié)合項(xiàng)目的具體情況展開分析并給出相應(yīng)的建議。

最后，給出了本篇論文的結(jié)論及展望。通過(guò)文中的分析，可以得出魯東物流中心鋼材物流園項(xiàng)目具有很好的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，而且抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力強(qiáng)，該項(xiàng)目是可行的。

關(guān)鍵詞：項(xiàng)目 建設(shè)條件 效益分析

山東科技大學(xué)工程碩士學(xué)位論文 摘要

Abstract

Ludong steel logistics center logistics park as a logistics center in eastern Shandong planning one of the five functional areas, mainly through the development of steel, logistics and distribution, improve and guide the Weifang Steel's long-term healthy development of the logistics industry, and actively lead the entire logistics flow of goods, information Talent flow, capital flow, and product processing, real estate development, transportation, finance and other related industries, the project is completed, can greatly stimulate domestic demand, promoting employment, and promote the rapid development of regional economy.

Based on the logistics center in eastern Shandong steel construction of a logistics park projects and investment-benefit analysis of the conditions, from the geographical point of view of development and technical and economic feasibility of the project, predicted the project's risk tolerance and put into operation capability, thus improving the feasibility of the project scientific research, completeness and accuracy, expected to play the smooth implementation of the project reference.

Firstly, the construction of the project evaluation of conditions and the basic theory of investment returns were introduced, as this study provides a theoretical basis. Further technical evaluation from the project, project financial evaluation, the project environmental assessment point of view on project economic evaluation should be used in evaluation theory and evaluation methods. From the perspective of project risk analysis, breakeven analysis, sensitivity analysis theory for future research projects carried out the theoretical basis for economic evaluation.

Second, the combination of eastern Shandong steel logistics center logistics park projects of construction conditions, estimates of the investment project, including estimates of fixed assets, current assets estimates, the total assets of estimates. At the same time gives way to financing: Bank loans and enterprises own funds.

Then, steel logistics center in eastern Shandong Logistics Park-benefit analysis of investment projects. Mainly from the product cost, sales proceeds, loan repayment, cash flow, break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis and other aspects, combined with the specific circumstances of the project to analyze and give recommendations accordingly.

山東科技大學(xué)工程碩士學(xué)位論文 摘要

Finally, this paper's conclusions and outlook. Through the analysis of the text, can be drawn steel logistics center Ludong Logistics Park project has good economic and anti-risk ability, the project is feasible.

Keywords: Project ；Construction Conditions；Benefit Analysis

山東科技大學(xué)工程碩士學(xué)位論文 目錄

目 錄

1 緒論…………………………………………………………………………1 1.1選題背景及意義…………………………………………………………………. 1

1.2國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀………………………………………………………………………3

1.3本文的主要內(nèi)容和結(jié)構(gòu)………………………………………………………………7 2項(xiàng)目建設(shè)條件及投資效益分析的理論基礎(chǔ)概述…………………………9

2.1建設(shè)條件分析基礎(chǔ)理論…………………………………………………………………9

2.2投資效益分析基礎(chǔ)理論……………………………… ………………………… ……13 3 魯東物流中心鋼材物流園項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)條件分析…………………………17

3.1濰坊鋼材物流發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及問(wèn)題分析…………………………………………………17

3.2濰坊市鋼聯(lián)金屬材料有限公司和魯東物流中心概況………………………………18

3.3魯東物流中心鋼材物流園項(xiàng)目建設(shè)條件………………………… ………… ………20

3.4項(xiàng)目工程建設(shè)基本方案………………………………………………………………28

4 投資估算及資金籌措…………………………………………………...30 4.1投資估算方法及編制依據(jù)……………………………………………………………30

4.2投資估算…………………………………………………………………………33

4.3資金籌措…………………………………………………………………………34

5 投資效益分析……………………………………………………………...36

5.1財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)………………………………………………………………………36

5.2財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)……………………………………………………………………40

5.3總成本費(fèi)用的測(cè)算……………………………………………………………………41

5.4利潤(rùn)的測(cè)算……………………………………………………………………………42

5.5財(cái)務(wù)盈利能力分析……………………………………………………………………42

5.6財(cái)務(wù)盈虧平衡分析……………………………………………………………………43

5.7敏感性性分析…………………………………………………………………………43

5.8 評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)論…………………………………………… …………………………………44

6 結(jié)論與展望…………………………………………………………..45

6.1結(jié)論……………………………………………………………………………………45

山東科技大學(xué)工程碩士學(xué)位論文 目錄

6.2展望……………………………………………………………………………………46 致謝………………….. …... …….. …………………. …….. ……….. …..... ……47 參考文獻(xiàn)………………….. …... …….. ……………………………. …..... ……48

山東科技大學(xué)工程碩士學(xué)位論文 目錄

Contents

1 Introduction …. ………. ……. ……. ……. ……….. ……. ……. ……. ……. … …. 1 1.1 The research background and significance…. …. … …. … ……. … …. ……. …….. ……. ……. … ….1

1.2 The research status.……. ……. ……. ……. … …. ……. ………. … …. ……. … . …. ……. …. … ….3

1.3 The main content and tructure…. ……. ……. ……. …. … …. ……. ……. ……. …. ……. ……. … …. 7 2 Construction conditions and investment results of the theoretical basis for an overview........ ……. 9 2.1 Construction condition of the basic theory.…. …. …. …. ……. .……. …. ……. ……. ……. …… .…….9

2.2 Basic Theory of Investment Analysis ….……. ……. …. ……. …. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. 13 3 Shandong East Logistics Center Logistics Park project construction steel Conditions .. . ……. 17 3.1 Weifang Steel Logistics Development Current Situation and Problems.……. ….. . ……... …. …… .17

3.2 Weifang Steel Alliance Metal Materials Co., Ltd. and Shandong East Logistics Center Overview… 18

3.3 Steel Logistics Center Ludong Logistics Park Project Construction Condition Analysis.…. .…. ….... …….... 20

3.4 Construction of the project the basic program.…. ….. …. …. ….. …. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. …….28 4 Investment Appraisal and Financing…. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……... ……. 30 4.1 Investment Estimate and the basis for the preparation……. .….. …. .….. …. …….. ……. ……. …….30

4.2 Investment Estimation…. ……. ……. ……. …. .….. …. ……... …. …….. ……. ……. ……. ……. …… .33

4.3 Funds rasing……. ……. ……. ……. …. ….. …. …. ….. …. …….. …. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. 34 5 Investment Benefit analysis . ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. 36 5.1 The financial evaluation…. …. . .….. …. …. ….. …. ……. …. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. …….36

5.2 The financial evaluation of the underlying data…. ….. …. ……. …. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. …….40

5.3 The estimated total cost…. .…. …. …. …. .….. …. …. ….. …. …….. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. …… .41

5.4 Calculation of profits…. ………. …. ……. .….. .….. …. ……. …. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. 42 5.5 Financial profitability analysis .….. …. …. ….. …. …….. …. …….. …. …. …. …. ……. ……. ……. …….42

5.6 Financial break-even analysis …. …. …. ….. …. ……. …. ……. ……. …………. …. … …. ……. …… . 43

5.7 Sensitivity analysis …. ……. .….. …. …. ….. …. …….. …………. ……. ……. ……. ……. ……. …… . 43

5.8 Evaluation findings .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . .….. …. …….... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...44